Q1 2026 Wrap: It's a Confusing Market

Inventory is up. Rates are sticky. Buyers are picky. Sellers are stubborn. Nobody is happy. Let's go through it.

What the numbers say

Active listings ended Q1 about 22% higher than this time last year. Median days on market crept up from 18 to 27. List-to-sale ratio is sitting at 97.3%, which is the lowest it's been since 2019. Average 30-year rate spent the quarter bouncing between 6.4% and 6.9% and shows no real signs of breaking out of that range.

What it feels like on the ground

Buyers who would have written same-week last year are taking ten days, going back for a second showing, asking about HOA history, and writing under list. That doesn't mean they're not buying — they are — they're just refusing to be rushed, and they're right not to be.

Sellers who priced for 2022 are sitting. Sellers who priced for the comps from December are moving in three to five weeks, often with a small concession. The gap between those two outcomes is almost entirely about the first list price.

If you're buying

You have leverage you didn't have two years ago, and you don't need to apologize for using it. Ask for the seller credit toward the rate buydown. Ask for the inspection items. The market is letting you be a real participant in the negotiation again, which is a healthy thing.

If you're selling

Price to the comps that closed in the last 60 days, not the comps that listed nine months ago. The first two weeks on market are still doing 80% of the work — get them right. The houses that sit are not sitting because the market is broken; they're sitting because they were priced for a market that isn't here anymore.

Q2 will probably look a lot like Q1. Don't wait for a clear signal — the signal is the absence of one.